they call it a wasteland, baby.

Thanks to last week’s episode we now know that each of the numbers corresponds to a castaway chosen by Jacob. In addition to this, we have been told in the past that the numbers correspond to variables in an equation developed by Enzo Valenzetti. This equation predicted the exact amount of time left until humanity wiped itself out. In the aftermath of The Substitute I’ve had conversations with some who feel let down by Fake Locke’s dismissive explanation that Jacob just has a thing for numbers. While I understand the feeling, I think there’s a lot more going on than what’s on the surface of Fake Locke’s answer. I think he’s probably completely right while also being very wrong.

For the last five seasons we’ve had these numbers shoved in our face at every possible turn. They’ve appeared on the island, off the island, all over Hurley’s life, and even outside of the show. The numbers are probably the show’s most notorious recurring theme (or at least right up there with the smoke monster). Despite their ubiquity, Damon Lindelof has gone on record as saying:

There are some questions that are very engaging and interesting, and then there are other questions that we have no interest whatsoever in answering. We call it the midi-chlorian debate, because at a certain point, explaining something mystical demystifies it. To try and have a character come and say, ‘Here is what the numbers mean,’ actually makes every usage of the numbers up to that point less interesting.

…if you’re watching the show for a detailed explanation of what the numbers mean – and I’m not saying you won’t see more of them – then you will be disappointed by the end of season six.

I think that statement originally frustrated a lot of people because it looked like a huge question would never get answered. Many felt that a show which poses so many questions should at least answer the big ones. But I do believe Lindelof has a point and it would be a shame to cheapen the mythology of the show. Before everyone gets up in arms about the numbers just being numbers I think we need to take Fake Locke’s line and look at the overall picture. I believe there’s an answer to be found (and a satisfying one at that).

Ok, so what we have now is the inside of a cave on which numerous names and numbers are written. Among these are the following familiar pairings: 4 – Locke, 8 – Reyes, 15 – Ford, 16 – Jarrah, 23 – Shephard, 42 – Kwon. Fake Locke’s explanation for the number assignments is simple – Jacob “has a thing for numbers.” I believe he is absolutely right about this.

I think what Lindelof was getting at is that the numbers, in and of themselves, have no real meaning. Jacob really did assign them with no purpose…it’s the people to which they are attached that give the numbers meaning. So there’s no real significance in Jack Shephard being assigned the number 23, but because Jack is important, the appearance of the number 23 throughout the series becomes important. The “answer” that everyone wanted doesn’t exist because the numbers are just numbers.

The constant appearance of the numbers on the show really drives home another reoccurring theme: everyone is connected. Like the numbers, the castaways have a knack for randomly connecting to one another throughout their lives. And no one has had the numbers appear more in their life than Hurley. Consider this: Hurley also is one of the only castaways universally liked by everyone else. No matter which factions formed, everyone loved Hurley. It’s quite fitting that he would be inundated with references to his partners in destiny.

Based on what we know of the history of the numbers you could reasonably conclude that Jacob’s plan for the castaways was really put into motion long before the incident at the Swan site. Valenzetti’s research lead to the equation which showed that unless one of those six variables are changed humanity had no chance. Back in 1962, he effectively told the world of Lost, “unless one of those six castaways does something, we’re all screwed.” He just didn’t know that’s what he was saying.

Alvar Hanso funded the Dharma Initiative with the main goal of changing at least one of those six variables. They believed they could bring about the change through scientific study and experimentation. Much like Fake Locke, they were wrong and they were right. None of their work directly changed the variables, but everything they did on the island set the stage for the castaways to show up. The entire Dharma era on the island was the part of Jacob’s plan designed just to get the pieces in place.

As I have said before, I think alternate timeline is showing us the end result of the fulfillment of Jacob’s plan. Somewhere along the way, one of the variables was changed. Disaster was averted, the island was sunk, and the world is safe. But what disaster was averted? My money’s on Smokey. I think the doomsday that Valenzetti foresaw was the release of Smokey into the wild. At the end of this season we will see someone (or many people) make the change that saves everyone else. And I believe Hurley’s newfound luck is the evidence that Jacob succeeded. When the castaways came to the island, every single one of them was broken, damaged, or…wait for it…cursed. By fulfilling Jacob’s plan and finding redemption, the castaways (and the numbers) no longer carry that curse. So the numbers mean nothing and everything at the same time.

As I type these last few words it is 7:54pm CST. That means that my theory has about six minutes before tonight’s episode airs and basically shoots the whole thing to hell. Oh well.